Solar to provide 20% of energy by 2027

**DanKegel** · 02-02-2016, 04:13 PM

... if trends continue. That's certainly not a given. They were just saying 20% by 2027 would not be rediculous given how fast it's increasing.

Also, most of their work was on price of modules, not on balance of systems. The "20% by 2027" part was more of a WAG on their part than their projections about falling module prices.

Here's a direct link to the paper:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733315001699

**SunEagle** · 02-02-2016, 04:22 PM

So in 9 years the expectations are to triple the amount of global solar power from around 7% to 20%. Seems pretty steep clime even if prices keep going down but anything is possible.

**DanKegel** · 02-02-2016, 04:53 PM

Did they assume subsides remain unchanged? That seems a particularly risky assumption.

**SunEagle** · 02-02-2016, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by DanKegel

Did they assume subsides remain unchanged? That seems a particularly risky assumption.

Subsides probably didn't even get considered since the study came out of the UK and they were talking about the entire world and not just US installations.

Like I said anything is possible but with the price of oil going down, the number of new fossil fuel (coal & natural gas) generation being built world wide as well as the increase of wind generation, I would think that solar will have a fight to gain that much more of the power generation pie.

**veritass** · 02-02-2016, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by DanKegel

... if trends continue. That's certainly not a given. They were just saying 20% by 2027 would not be rediculous given how fast it's increasing.

Also, most of their work was on price of modules, not on balance of systems. The "20% by 2027" part was more of a WAG on their part than their projections about falling module prices.

Here's a direct link to the paper:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...48733315001699

Why wouldn't the trend continue?

**jflorey2** · 02-02-2016, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by veritass

Why wouldn't the trend continue?

Mainly cheap natural gas. It is seen as a "greener" alternative than coal, and is currently very cheap.

**veritass** · 02-02-2016, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by jflorey2

Mainly cheap natural gas. It is seen as a "greener" alternative than coal, and is currently very cheap.

but solar is going to get much cheaper, natural gas probably won't

**inetdog** · 02-02-2016, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by veritass

but solar is going to get much cheaper, natural gas probably won't

Yet a few relatively modest investments in distribution systems will allow natural gas to be economical in parts of the country where it is not currently viable at electric utility scale.

**jflorey2** · 02-02-2016, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by veritass

but solar is going to get much cheaper, natural gas probably won't

I don't think solar is going to get much cheaper. It bottomed out at about 70 cents a watt (panels only) and has since rebounded a bit.

Meanwhile, natural gas continues to drop - and even in a scenario where solar continues to increase, natural gas is the only alternative to the "evil" coal and nuclear baseload plants in most locations.

**veritass** · 02-02-2016, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by jflorey2

I don't think solar is going to get much cheaper. It bottomed out at about 70 cents a watt (panels only) and has since rebounded a bit.

Meanwhile, natural gas continues to drop - and even in a scenario where solar continues to increase, natural gas is the only alternative to the "evil" coal and nuclear baseload plants in most locations.

Solar is a technology that gets more efficient and cheaper with time. Solar has dropped in price much more than natural gas over the last 10 years and will continue to do so because that is how technology products progress over time.

**solar pete** · 02-02-2016, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by veritass

Solar is a technology that gets more efficient and cheaper with time. Solar has dropped in price much more than natural gas over the last 10 years and will continue to do so because that is how technology products progress over time.

Well you would think so BUT consider this, fluctuating currency value, price of silicon wafers, price of aluminum, wages in China are rising not falling this is increasing there cost of manufacturing.

**SunEagle** · 02-02-2016, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by solar pete

Well you would think so BUT consider this, fluctuating currency value, price of silicon wafers, price of aluminum, wages in China are rising not falling this is increasing there cost of manufacturing.

Ahh. Don't pop his bubble. Maybe solar will get cheaper than dirt.

**inetdog** · 02-02-2016, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by SunEagle

Ahh. Don't pop his bubble. Maybe solar will get cheaper than dirt.

But it can never get cheaper than sand as long as silicon based cells are used.

**veritass** · 02-03-2016, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by solar pete

Well you would think so BUT consider this, fluctuating currency value, price of silicon wafers, price of aluminum, wages in China are rising not falling this is increasing there cost of manufacturing.

The things you mentioned above can affect pricing over the short- and medium-term, but long-term pricing will be down because technology is improving and manufacturing efficiencies are improving. There is an enormous amount of research going on in solar and solar panels will get cheaper and more efficient over time. To assume that technological progress will stop in solar is like saying cell phones will be more expensive and not as good in five years.

Solar to provide 20% of energy by 2027

Solar to provide 20% of energy by 2027

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